Ep. 160 - The Future of Surfing
How is climate change affecting surf breaks? 🏄♂️
In this episode, Mattimore explores how four major climate factors are affecting surf breaks worldwide, and the pros and cons of the various solutions being proposed to mitigate these effects…
Climate Effects Discussed:
Rising sea levels
More severe, frequent storms
Coral bleaching and pollution
Shifting wind patterns
Possible Solutions Discussed:
Add sand to beaches
Build a sea wall
Buy out property
Biological solutions
Carbon capture tech
X-factor technologies
Future Scenarios:
Worst case scenario
Best case scenario
Most likely scenario
Thanks for tuning in 🔭
Episode 160 Transcript
Mattimore Cronin (00:13):
Welcome to Hence The Future podcast. I'm Mattimore Cronin. And today we're discussing The Future of Surfing. That means we'll get into how climate change is affecting surfing conditions in California and around the world, some solutions that are being proposed to protect local surfing communities and mitigate the effects of climate change, and what the future holds for surfers worldwide in the worst case scenario, the best case scenario and the most likely scenario.
Mattimore Cronin (00:37):
And, ever since I've been surfing, for the past 15 or 20 years or so, I've noticed a gradual shift in some of the spots that I go to most frequently. So in Malibu, the tide seems to be higher on average than it used to. In Santa Monica, the direction of the winds that produce the beach breaks seems to be changing slightly now, coming more from the north now than from the south. And all up and down the California coast, I've noticed that waves are getting bigger where there are storms, but they're also getting milder in times where there aren't storms. These are my own first person accounts of how the surf seems to be shifting from my perspective, but I wanted to do a deep dive into what the science tells us about how climate change is affecting surfing. So that's what today's episode is dedicated to.
Mattimore Cronin (01:20):
Let's start with the four biggest climate factors that are affecting surf breaks all around the world. Probably the single biggest factor affecting surfing conditions is rising sea levels because this affects every surf break around the world, regardless of what type of break it is.
Mattimore Cronin (01:36):
And when you think about what rising sea level does to a surf break, all else being equal, when the sea level rises, the surf breaks that are currently the best surf breaks in the world will get worse, because if you have a reef break, then all of a sudden it's a less dramatic reef break because the water is now higher above that reef. Same thing if it's a beach break, the water will now be higher above the sandbar. So you'll have more gradual waves that are less steep. And same thing also for point breaks and jetty breaks. If the water rises above those points and above those jetties, you won't get that nice shape that you would in today's point breaks, in Malibu first point, for instance.
Mattimore Cronin (02:11):
And when you look at the data to see how much will the sea level actually rise, it's going to get pretty dramatic from here on out as compared to how much it's risen in the last 100 years. So in the last 100 years, the coastline around California has only risen by nine inches, but by the end of this century, by the year 2100, it's expected to rise by as much as nine feet. And there's a really great interactive sea level rise simulation map from NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Mattimore Cronin (02:44):
And looking at this map, you can see which parts of the coast are going to have the most profound effects from sea level rise. And luckily for me, living in LA, LA is actually going to have a relatively minor impact because the tectonic plates beneath Los Angeles are rising slightly. Whereas the tectonic plates below Mexico and below parts of the Northern California coast are actually sinking slightly. So that's one area where depending on the tectonic plates beneath you, you might be in a much better position than someone else that's at the same level on the coast today. So for instance, Florida is largely going to be underwater by the end of this century, unless something major shifts, whereas LA will more or less be fine.
Mattimore Cronin (03:27):
The areas in LA that are going to be the most effected are Venice Beach, Marina Del Rey, Playa Vista, parts of Malibu like the Malibu Lagoon, and San Diego. But LA, relatively speaking, does not have that big of an impact from sea level rise.
Mattimore Cronin (03:43):
Along the Northwestern US, it's much more extreme than in LA. The Seattle coast, the Oregon coast, Northern California right above San Francisco, those areas are going to experience much more profound effects. And along the Southern United States, the Houston coast in Texas, the New Orleans coast in Louisiana, and pretty much the entire coast of Florida. Those are all going to be inundated with flooding and will largely be underwater by the end of the century. The most effected areas of the East Coast are the Carolina Coast, the Virginia Coast, the whole area surrounding the Chesapeake Bay. And even within New York City, much of Queens, much of Long Island, and much of The Hamptons are projected to be underwater by the end of the century.
Mattimore Cronin (04:24):
And the only silver lining behind sea level rise is that we will likely see new surf breaks emerge as the sea level rises to cover what was previously beachfront property. We will see new types of breaks as the shape of the winds, the shape of the reef and the beach, and the jetties change. There will be new surf breaks that never existed before. So you might live somewhere that's totally boring now. And in 20 years it could be this incredible world-class surf break. So that is the one constellation we'll see from all the surf breaks that we would lose from sea level rise.
Mattimore Cronin (04:56):
The second big climate factor affecting surf breaks worldwide is the severity of storms that we've been seeing recently. It seems like every year there is a new hurricane that breaks all previous records. And it's true that as climate change accelerates, we are going to get more extreme storms and more frequent storms. And the bad part of this is that those storms can be totally destructive for surf breaks. So you could have a massive hurricane roll in and totally destroy a fantastic point break, like the one in Malibu or the one in Pismo beach. And those point breaks, those jetty breaks, will no longer create the shape of the wave that people come from all over the world to experience.
Mattimore Cronin (05:36):
Now, the only upside to these more severe, more frequent storms is that we're also likely to see bigger waves. You might've heard that there was recently the biggest wave ever surfed. It was a 100 plus foot wave in Nazare, Portugal. And I bet we are going to see that record break almost every year as surfers out and using tow in surfing and other techniques that have only existed for the last decade or so. They're going to continue to break records by surfing bigger and bigger waves that have never been served before. So that is the one upside to all of these storms, but there's a lot of destruction that we need to look out for as well.
Mattimore Cronin (06:13):
The third climate factor affecting surf breaks worldwide is coral bleaching and pollution. Obviously, pollution is not good for anyone who's in the water, whether you're swimming, surfing, or doing any other kind of activity. And coral bleaching is particularly destructive for reef breaks. So for instance, La Jolla is a world-class reef break along the coast of California. Australia has lots of great reef breaks. They also have the Great Barrier Reef, which is a major tourist destination, and many of these reefs are dying because the temperature is getting hotter in the water. There's too much pollution in the water. And so conditions aren't great for Marine life. And if this continues, we're going to see some of the best reef breaks in the world disappear. And we might also see some beaches become untenable as far as going in the water, because it might be too dangerous from the perspective of getting sick, getting some kind of disease, some sort of bacterial infection.
Mattimore Cronin (07:08):
So these are all things we need to worry about as it relates to surfing and climate change. The fourth and final climate factor affecting surf breaks is shifting wind patterns. You've probably heard of El Nino and LA Nina conditions, which relate to the pattern of wind flowing from either the north of the south. And during El Nino conditions, historically, that has meant pumping surf all along the west coast of the United States. Whereas in La Nina, you wouldn't have as big of waves in the west coast, but you might have bigger waves in the east coast and some other areas in the country. However, this pattern is kind of changing. It's not as predictable as it used to be. And so I won't get into all the specifics of how El Nino and La Nina are changing, because it's very dependent on specific regions and where the beach break is facing. But one thing is clear. And that's that what used to be the best beach break is probably no longer going to be the best beach break. And this is especially important for newbie surfers, for beginners, because beginners tend to love to surf beach breaks. There's these nice Sandy beaches where you can wade all the way out there. You might even be able to stand on the sandbar while you push yourself into your first wave, which you stand up on. And Zuma beach is a great example. People come from all over the world to surf Zuma beach, but if the winds shift, you could see that beach break entirely disappear.
Mattimore Cronin (08:27):
The other downside of greater intensity and change of wind patterns is that you won't get as clean of a break. One thing surfers love are breaks where the water is almost like glass, and you can paddle it and exactly know when the way is going to break. But when there's stormy conditions, when the wind speeds are high, you have much choppier waters, and it's much harder to catch a clean wave because there could be some rogue element that splashes you out of the barrel right before you go into it. So it's definitely not ideal to have super windy conditions when you're out surfing. Typically, you want really big waves with minimal wind. Those are the best conditions. So higher winds are not good for future of surfing.
Mattimore Cronin (09:10):
Now that we've talked about the four biggest climate factors affecting surfing conditions, let's get into some of the possible solutions being proposed.
Mattimore Cronin (09:17):
One solution that's very popular is to add sand to extend the beach further. And this is really popular for beach goers, because everyone loves long Sandy beaches with shallow waters, but this is not a great long-term solution because as we mentioned with shifting wind conditions, more intense storms, those extended sandbars could easily be blown away. And so it's not something that's going to fix the problem long-term.
Mattimore Cronin (09:41):
Another solution is to add a seawall similar to what they're doing in Balboa Island and parts of New York in New Orleans with their levy system. And this is good for preserving coastal towns and cities and preventing it from getting inundated with water and flooding, but it's not great for beach goers or surfers, because if there's a giant concrete wall between you and the break, it's not exactly easy to go out there and surf, unless you want to ram up right against this concrete barrier. So that good for preserving towns, not good for preserving surf breaks.
Mattimore Cronin (10:16):
Another solution is to buy out beach front homes so that the government, whether it's state local or federal government, can own those homes and therefore actually pull the shoreline back further to be proactive about the effects of sea level rise and climate change. And this is actually good for homeowners because they get compensation for homes that would otherwise be worthless, unless you're selling to the people of Atlantis. And it's also good for beach goers because now there's at least a new coastline that they can experience. And you don't have a massive wall in between yourself and the beach break. However, you do lose the nice Sandy part of the beach by doing this. Whenever you pull the coastline further up, you're losing those nice sandy areas that people love to hang out on today.
Mattimore Cronin (11:02):
And then finally, there could be some X-factor technology that hasn't fully matured that could have a major dent in climate change. Some things that have been proposed is carbon sequestration. So you could limit the amount of climate change overall, and the amount of global warming that's occurring, by sequestering large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere and turning it into something more manageable.
Mattimore Cronin (11:26):
There have also been efforts to plant new coral reefs to help the wildlife out there. And certainly that could be beneficial, some sort of biological approach to improving climate conditions.
Mattimore Cronin (11:36):
There have also been suggestions of creating marshlands and wetlands and even artificial islands to sort of create a barrier between these massive storms and the coastline that you're trying to protect. And this can be really effective. And it's something they're looking into to New York City, for instance, but it's hugely expensive. And so while they will probably apply this solution in some areas like Manhattan, it's not something you could apply everywhere simply because of the cost and the upkeep.
Mattimore Cronin (12:05):
Now let's get into the future scenarios.
Mattimore Cronin (12:08):
Let's talk about the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario for the future of surfing is that pollution gets so bad that it doesn't matter what the conditions are. It's simply not safe to go in the water. This would obviously be terrible, not only for surfers, but for everyone who enjoys the beaches, the oceans, and for our oceans' biodiversity, which is really the cradle of life for our planet.
Mattimore Cronin (12:41):
Another terrible scenario would be if the storms and the winds get so intense, that also, it doesn't matter how big the waves are. They're simply not a nice shape. They're too choppy and therefore they're too difficult to ride. They're not enjoyable. Also many beach towns could be demolished from these major storms and from rising sea level, this would lead to cultures evaporating. Some of the oldest coolest small town, Pueblo surf towns, could no longer exist, and more intimidating rock beaches would be the only thing left.
Mattimore Cronin (13:13):
So you wouldn't have these nice long sandy beaches and all these cool surf communities. It would more be like what today is a more intimidating Northern California, San Francisco style, rocky waters. That would more be the vibe of most surf breaks.
Mattimore Cronin (13:28):
And at a high level, the worst case scenario is that climate change is not properly addressed in time. There could be many climate refugees. We could literally be at a point where many parts of the world are not hospitable to humans. Already in India, for instance, the summers are getting so hot that people are dying in droves of heat stroke. And if that gets much worse, if the temperature gets much higher, we're going to see major population centers start to really be in serious trouble. And that's going to have global effects all around the world, not just for a beach surfing communities and not only for humans, but for all earthlings. The ocean is really this interesting reactor that kind of creates all of life as we know it on earth. And so we have to be so careful when we're seeing these large scale effects of our oceans and our planet.
Mattimore Cronin (14:19):
Now let's get into the best case scenario. The best case scenario is that we take climate change very seriously as a global community. And a big piece of that is the surfing community.
Mattimore Cronin (14:36):
Surfers have been called the "canaries in the coal mine" when it comes to environmental changes and climate change. And that's because surfers are in the water, they're on the beaches, they're scuba diving in the reefs. And so they are the ones who oftentimes are the first to notice when there's a major detrimental climate change effect that's being experienced. And so there've been a number of movements where surfers have teamed up with environmentalist in an effort to preserve beaches and combat the effects of climate change. However, the individual effects don't seem to be sizeable enough to make the change that we need. We really need structural fundamental change at the highest levels.
Mattimore Cronin (15:16):
And I think a big part of what could be a best case scenario is one of those X factor technologies we discussed. If there is some massive breakthrough with carbon sequestration technology, that could be huge for mitigating climate change. Likewise, if there is some biological solution to improve the health of our coral reefs, that could be a major X-factor.
Mattimore Cronin (15:38):
And the one point that gives me hope is that as the effects of climate change get worse and worse over time, people are going to wake up more and more to how important this cause is. And so I have a lot of faith in the surfing community and the environmentalist community and in just my fellow human beings that we will take on climate change and we will survive and get past this, even if it's going to take some major upheaval to get to that point where we're able to live alongside nature and thrive with nature, rather than trying to just dominate nature.
Mattimore Cronin (16:12):
Now let's get into the most likely scenario. For the most likely scenario, I was reflecting on how important surf culture is to me, and also how important it is for so much of what we call California or what we call any coastal community. I was surfing in Venice beach this past weekend, and I realized that the whole reason this is such a vibrant iconic landmark in Los Angeles is because this is precisely where the surf break is. This is the birthplace of the Z-Boys, the first ever skateboarders. And my dad actually knows one of the Z-Boys. And so this entire surfing skater culture was really born in a place like Venice beach, California, and it spread up and down the coast. And now at any beach community, especially if it's a surfing community, I feel at home when I go there. So there's this incredible connection between all surfers, all beach goers, and it would be such a shame to see that culture die out and to see it change because of climate change.
Mattimore Cronin (17:19):
But I have a lot of faith in surfers to overcome even the mightiest of obstacles. And there's a change that I've noticed as a result of surfing... When you've dropped in on 10 foot waves, let alone 100 foot waves like the biggest one that's ever been surfed, every other challenge in your life seems to be less intense. If you have an argument with someone in your household, it's not as big of a deal. If you have a conflict with someone at work, it's not as big of a deal. So the fact that surfers are so courageous and so able to take on incredible obstacles gives me hope that we will overcome the worst effects of climate change.
Mattimore Cronin (17:54):
I hope you enjoy today's episode, and I'll see you next week.